Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-02-02 0.650234 0.756459 0.874138 1.014120 1.176059 1.357482 1.576152
2025-02-09 0.485346 0.629819 0.807505 1.041874 1.342725 1.715849 2.213811
2025-02-16 0.392082 0.549758 0.758556 1.054790 1.463900 2.008745 2.789558
2025-02-23 0.326027 0.486992 0.713386 1.054223 1.553720 2.258432 3.328206
2025-03-02 0.275253 0.434409 0.670287 1.044159 1.620951 2.476263 3.840738
2025-03-09 0.238579 0.395570 0.639397 1.044071 1.697662 2.710803 4.400041
2025-03-16 0.201685 0.349982 0.590476 1.006899 1.708420 2.841031 4.807504
2025-03-23 0.190836 0.345122 0.605314 1.073465 1.892737 3.264922 5.735894
2025-03-30 0.165527 0.311472 0.567015 1.044026 1.909792 3.411639 6.212013
2025-04-06 0.143475 0.280340 0.528673 1.008658 1.910382 3.527325 6.643120
2025-04-13 0.125306 0.253785 0.494932 0.976724 1.911958 3.642530 7.082823
2025-04-20 0.114968 0.240848 0.484766 0.987501 1.993834 3.911644 7.837064
2025-04-27 0.110943 0.240332 0.499089 1.049093 2.183991 4.410641 9.101338
2025-05-04 0.103868 0.232611 0.498259 1.080409 2.318278 4.817780 10.235147
2025-05-11 0.095887 0.221773 0.489525 1.093882 2.416865 5.163442 11.281986
2025-05-18 0.087638 0.209130 0.475235 1.093297 2.484822 5.452184 12.239977
2025-05-25 0.079571 0.195747 0.457580 1.082867 2.529586 5.695924 13.127227
2025-06-01 0.073157 0.185338 0.445237 1.082776 2.597120 5.995472 14.170734
2025-06-08 0.064907 0.169317 0.417932 1.044251 2.571239 6.084024 14.743801
2025-06-15 0.064121 0.171797 0.434683 1.113240 2.807369 6.793676 16.841961
2025-06-22 0.057633 0.158752 0.412109 1.082729 2.798696 6.931714 17.592019
2025-06-29 0.051530 0.145860 0.388303 1.046074 2.770220 7.018979 18.227253
2025-07-06 0.046260 0.134478 0.366925 1.012976 2.746709 7.115414 18.895675